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The impact of AI on workers in ASEAN’s six largest economies



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A new report by Oxford Economics and Cisco explores what the next decade of technological change will mean for ASEAN workers.

By leveraging data on 433 occupations across 21 industries, it modeled the the impact of technology adoption patterns on the 275 million FTE workers in the six largest ASEAN economies – namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Singapore’s labour market faces the largest degree of job displacement over the next decade, while Malaysia expects the least job displacement in ASEAN.

Analysis shared below on the basis of jobs created versus displaced in each country.

The future of jobs in Indonesia

2 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Agriculture: 3.5m displaced (10.4% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 1.6m displaced (6.6% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 1.5m displaced (8.4% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Wholesale & retail: 2.3m jobs created (9.2% of workforce)
  • Agriculture: 1.8m jobs created (5.3% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 1.4m jobs created (7.9% of workforce)

The impact of AI on jobs in Malaysia

250,000 existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Manufacturing: 230k displaced (8.2% of workforce)
  • Agriculture: 180k displaced (11% of the workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 175k displaced (6.3% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Wholesale & retail: 280k jobs created (9.9% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 185k jobs created (6.7% of workforce)
  • Hotels & restaurants: 120k jobs created (8.3% of workforce)

How innovations in digital technology will impact the Philippines

1.1 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Agriculture: 1.2m displaced (12.4% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 880k displaced (8.5% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 380k displaced (10% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Wholesale & retail: 1.3m jobs created (12.5% of workforce)
  • Transport: 490k jobs created (13.2% of workforce)
  • Construction: 460k jobs created (11.9% of workforce)

How tech will transform jobs and capabilities in Singapore

85,000 existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Wholesale & retail: 80k displaced (19.8% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 55k displaced (22.1% of workforce)
  • Transport: 50k displaced (23.8% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Wholesale & retail: 100k jobs created (24.6% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 70k jobs created (28.2% of workforce)
  • Finance & Insurance: 60k jobs created (27.6% of workforce)

How Thailand could take advantage of new-age technologies

1.3 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Agriculture: 1.7m displaced (14.5% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 840k displaced (11.6% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 760k displaced (10.4% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Manufacturing: 1.2m jobs created (16.3% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 910k jobs created (12.4% of workforce)
  • Hotels & restaurants: 550k jobs created (17.4% of workforce)

What 2028 could bring for jobs displaced and created in Vietnam

1.8 million existing roles will disappear from the labour market, pushing workers into other industries and occupations.

The three sectors in line for most displacement are:

  • Agriculture: 3.4m displaced (17.1% of workforce)
  • Manufacturing: 1.3m displaced (13.2% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 840k displaced (10.9% of workforce)

The three sectors in line for the most job creation are:

  • Manufacturing: 1.7m jobs created (8.5% of workforce)
  • Wholesale & retail: 1.6m jobs created (16.4% of workforce)
  • Hotels & restaurants: 1.3m jobs created (16.8% of workforce)

Image / Oxford Economics

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